Sweden vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 36.9 vs 44.2), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Italy leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.3 goals per game compared to Sweden's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Italy's backline outperforms Sweden's, with 1.1 goals conceded per match versus 1.5.

Italy has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sweden is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Italy is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 73% win probability for Italy. In practical terms, Italy would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Italy has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 9.3-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 2-2 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-09). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-03): Sweden defeated Italy 0-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Sweden's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Italy. Notably, Sweden achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Italy shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Italy will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sweden will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.