Tre Fiori vs Larne Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 53.6 vs 60.4), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Larne holds the attacking edge with 1.4 goals per match versus Tre Fiori's 0.6, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Larne is far superior, conceding just 1.2 goals per match with 6 clean sheets, while Tre Fiori leaks 3.0 goals per match.

Larne has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.1 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Tre Fiori is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Larne has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Larne is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while Tre Fiori shows signs of decline with 0W in last 5.

💡 Why This Matters: The 31.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Larne. In practical terms, Larne would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Larne holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 52.8 against 21.2 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Larne a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the UEFA Champions League (2026-07-14): Larne defeated Tre Fiori 2-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Larne's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Tre Fiori. Larne secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Tre Fiori will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Larne will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the UEFA Champions League (2026-07-07): Larne defeated Tre Fiori 0-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Larne's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Tre Fiori. Notably, Larne achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Tre Fiori shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Tre Fiori will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Larne will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.