Turkey vs Bulgaria Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Turkey has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 68.0 against considerably stronger competition than Bulgaria (SoS: 56.7). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

The attacking output of Turkey and Bulgaria is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.9 and 1.6 goals per game respectively.

Turkey holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.9 goals per game and recording 4 clean sheets, compared to Bulgaria's leaky backline that surrenders 2.4 goals per match.

Bulgaria has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Turkey has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.4 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Turkey is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 19 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Turkey is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Bulgaria shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 36.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Turkey. In practical terms, Turkey would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Turkey is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 75.8 vs 38.9, and superior metrics across the board, Turkey should win this comfortably.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-11-15): Turkey defeated Bulgaria 2-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Turkey secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-10-11): Turkey defeated Bulgaria 1-6. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Notably, Turkey achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Bulgaria shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 1-6 scoreline was emphatic — Turkey completely dominated Bulgaria in that encounter, raising serious questions about Bulgaria's ability to compete at this level. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.