Turkey vs Georgia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Context matters here: Turkey's schedule strength (SoS: 68.0) has been notably more demanding than Georgia's (SoS: 56.3), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Turkey holds the attacking edge with 1.9 goals per match versus Georgia's 1.4, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Turkey — 0.9 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Georgia, who give up 1.8 goals per match at the other end.

Georgia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Turkey has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Turkey is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 19 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Turkey is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Georgia shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 33.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Turkey. In practical terms, Turkey would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Turkey is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 75.8 vs 42.5, and superior metrics across the board, Turkey should win this comfortably.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-10-14): Turkey defeated Georgia 4-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Georgia. Turkey secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-1 scoreline was emphatic — Turkey completely dominated Georgia in that encounter, raising serious questions about Georgia's ability to compete at this level. Georgia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-09-04): Turkey defeated Georgia 2-3. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Georgia. Notably, Turkey achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Georgia shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 2-3 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Georgia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.