Uganda vs Tunisia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 41.7 vs 51.1), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Uganda holds the attacking edge with 1.5 goals per match versus Tunisia's 0.7, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Uganda holds the advantage — allowing just 1.5 goals per game against Tunisia's 2.3.

Tunisia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Uganda has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Tunisia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Uganda is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Tunisia shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Uganda faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Tunisia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 17.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Uganda. In practical terms, Uganda would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Uganda in this contest. Their superior power rating of 44.8, compared to 27.2 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In the CAF Africa Cup of Nations (2025-12-23), Tunisia eliminated Uganda with a 3-1 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Tunisia showed they can handle the pressure. Tunisia secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Uganda will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Tunisia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.