Union Berlin vs Augsburg Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 60.9 vs 70.4), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

The attacking output of Union Berlin and Augsburg is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.5 and 1.5 goals per game respectively.

Both defenses are comparable, with Union Berlin conceding 1.9 and Augsburg conceding 1.9 per match.

Union Berlin has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Augsburg has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 2 of 4 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

Statistical modeling projects 3.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Union Berlin is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Augsburg faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If Union Berlin can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 65% win probability for Augsburg. In practical terms, Augsburg would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.

Augsburg has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 6.0-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the German Bundesliga (2026-05-16), Union Berlin beat Augsburg 4-0. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Union Berlin secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Union Berlin completely dominated Augsburg in that encounter, raising serious questions about Augsburg's ability to compete at this level. Augsburg will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Union Berlin will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.