Urawa vs Machida Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 48.7 vs 40.6), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Machida in front of goal. Their 4.0 average per fixture tells the story, with T. Yengi driving that output personally responsible for 2 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Machida — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 1 clean sheets put them well ahead of Urawa, who give up 2.8 goals per match at the other end.

Urawa has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Machida has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Machida has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Machida is a strong road performer with a 100% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 4.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Urawa is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 8 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Machida faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Urawa can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 57.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Machida. In practical terms, Machida would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Machida emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 86.7 compared to 29.5, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Machida as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Japanese J1 League match (2026-08-23), Machida prevailed 3-1 against Urawa. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Machida secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Urawa will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Machida will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.