Varaždin vs Vukovar Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 49.0 vs 48.7), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Varaždin leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Vukovar's 1.1 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Varaždin — 0.9 goals conceded per game and 5 clean sheets put them well ahead of Vukovar, who give up 2.7 goals per match at the other end.

Varaždin has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Vukovar has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.2 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

🔥 Form Momentum: Varaždin is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 18 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

❄️ Form Momentum: Vukovar is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Varaždin is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Vukovar shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 35.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Varaždin. In practical terms, Varaždin would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Varaždin holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 63.9 against 28.1 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Varaždin a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

In their recent Croatia Prva HNL match (2026-05-15), Varaždin prevailed 0-2 against Vukovar. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Varaždin achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Vukovar shows genuine quality and mental strength. Vukovar will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Varaždin will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.