Vietnam vs Japan Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Japan has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 56.5) compared to Vietnam (SoS: 45.7). This means Japan's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Few sides can match Japan in front of goal. Their 3.4 average per fixture tells the story, with R. Ueki driving that output personally responsible for 7 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Japan — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets put them well ahead of Vietnam, who give up 2.9 goals per match at the other end.

Japan has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Japan has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Japan is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 3.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Vietnam is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: Japan is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 34 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Japan is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Vietnam shows signs of decline with 2W in last 7.

💡 Why This Matters: The 54.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Japan. In practical terms, Japan would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Japan is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 79.3 vs 24.5, and superior metrics across the board, Japan should win this comfortably.

In the AFC Women's Asian Cup (2026-03-10), Japan eliminated Vietnam with a 4-0 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Japan showed they can handle the pressure. Japan secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Japan completely dominated Vietnam in that encounter, raising serious questions about Vietnam's ability to compete at this level. Vietnam will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Japan will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.