Vukovar vs Varaždin Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 48.7 vs 49.0), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Varaždin leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Vukovar's 1.1 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Varaždin holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.9 goals per game and recording 5 clean sheets, compared to Vukovar's leaky backline that surrenders 2.7 goals per match.

Vukovar has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.3 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Vukovar is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: Varaždin is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 18 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Varaždin is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Vukovar shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 35.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Varaždin. In practical terms, Varaždin would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Varaždin is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 63.9 vs 28.1, and superior metrics across the board, Varaždin should win this comfortably.

In their recent Croatia Prva HNL match (2026-05-15), Varaždin prevailed 0-2 against Vukovar. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Varaždin achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Vukovar shows genuine quality and mental strength. Vukovar will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Varaždin will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.