Wellington vs Adelaide Utd Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison
Compare Wellington vs Adelaide Utd: head-to-head stats, recent form, goals, defensive record and strength indicators from last matches.
Wellington
Home Team
Adelaide Utd
Away Team
Compare...
Performance Radar
Categories Won
Wellington
Draw
Adelaide Utd
Statistical Comparison
4W, 2D, 4L
3W, 6D, 1L
10 / 10 matches
15 / 10 matches
17 / 10 matches
13 / 10 matches
-7
+2
2 / 10 matches
0 / 10 matches
5 / 10 matches
4 / 10 matches
4 / 10 matches
9 / 10 matches
2W / 4 matches
1W / 4 matches
2W / 6 matches
2W / 6 matches
League Difficulty: 45.0, Opponent Quality: 44.1
League Difficulty: 45.0, Opponent Quality: 46.5
0W / 0 matches
0W / 0 matches
Actual: 1.0 | Diff: +0.1
Actual: 1.5 | Diff: +0.13
Attack: 31.5, Defense: 41.0, Form: 37.8
Attack: 47.9, Defense: 54.3, Form: 28.8
Goal Timing Analysis
0-15'
16-30'
31-45'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Strength of Schedule
Measures the difficulty of opponents faced. Higher = tougher schedule.
League Difficulty
Opponent Quality
Elite Opponent Record
Wellington
Adelaide Utd
Opponent Quality: Quality blends league strength, recent points form, goal difference, and home/away context. It is not only club size or reputation.
AI Analysis
A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.
The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 44.5 vs 45.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.
Offensively, Adelaide Utd outperforms Wellington with 1.5 goals per match to 1.0, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.
Defensively, Adelaide Utd holds the advantage — allowing just 1.3 goals per game against Wellington's 1.7.
Wellington has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.
Adelaide Utd has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.
Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.
⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Adelaide Utd faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 0 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Wellington can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.
💡 Why This Matters: The 9.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 73% win probability for Adelaide Utd. In practical terms, Adelaide Utd would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.
While Adelaide Utd holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 9.2-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.
These two teams drew 1-1 in the Australian A-League Men (2026-03-06). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.
Match Simulator
AI-powered match simulation based on real statistics
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Wellington
Adelaide Utd
In H2H (head-to-head) matchups, to eliminate momentary fluctuations and coincidences, we limit our analyses to an optimal depth of exactly 10 matches. Neither less, nor more. This focused approach is our undisputed gold standard, revealing the tactical and psychological supremacy teams hold over each other in its purest form. We do not dwell on the noise of the past; we concentrate on the millimetric precision of current form.
Comparison Summary
This head-to-head comparison analyzes the last 10 matches of each team, evaluating attack power, defensive strength, form consistency, and overall performance metrics. The power ratings are calculated using a weighted algorithm that considers goals scored, goals conceded, win rate, and recent form trends.
Wellington
4W 2D 4L · 10 goals scored · 17 conceded
Adelaide Utd
3W 6D 1L · 15 goals scored · 13 conceded
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