Zambia vs Mali Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 48.2 vs 41.2), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Mali leads the attacking statistics, averaging 0.9 goals per game compared to Zambia's 0.4 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Mali holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.7 goals per game and recording 4 clean sheets, compared to Zambia's leaky backline that surrenders 1.9 goals per match.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 1.9 total goals. Under 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being unlikely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Zambia is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 14.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Mali. In practical terms, Mali would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Mali holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 14.8-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the CAF Africa Cup of Nations (2025-12-22). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.