Espanha vs País de Gales Estatísticas de Confrontos Diretos e Comparação de Forma

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Spain has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 61.4 against considerably stronger competition than Wales (SoS: 48.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Spain possess a formidable attacking unit, with José Antonio Morante accounting for 4 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 3.8 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Defensively, Spain is far superior, conceding just 0.0 goals per match with 5 clean sheets, while Wales leaks 4.7 goals per match.

Spain has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Spain has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Spain is a strong road performer with a 100% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 4.2 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Spain has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 3.0 points per game over their last 5 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Wales is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 3 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Spain is on the rise with 5W in last 5, while Wales shows signs of decline with 0W in last 3.

💡 Why This Matters: The 85.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Spain. In practical terms, Spain would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Spain holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 100.0 against 15.0 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Spain a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

In their recent UEFA Under 19 Championship match (2026-06-28), Spain prevailed 0-7 against Wales. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Spain achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Wales shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-7 scoreline was emphatic — Spain completely dominated Wales in that encounter, raising serious questions about Wales's ability to compete at this level. Wales will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Spain will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.