Bournemouth vs Burnley Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 66.0 vs 59.5), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Bournemouth's attack is on another level, averaging 1.8 goals per match with J. Kroupi leading the charge (5 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

Bournemouth holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.9 goals per game and recording 3 clean sheets, compared to Burnley's leaky backline that surrenders 2.3 goals per match.

Bournemouth has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Burnley has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Bournemouth is a strong road performer with a 67% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.9 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Bournemouth has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.0 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Burnley is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Bournemouth is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Burnley shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 39.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Bournemouth. In practical terms, Bournemouth would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Bournemouth holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 69.1 against 29.4 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Bournemouth a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These two teams drew 0-0 in the Premier League (2026-03-14). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.