Burnley vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (59.5 vs 66.0), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Few sides can match Bournemouth in front of goal. Their 1.8 average per fixture tells the story, with J. Kroupi driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Bournemouth — 0.9 goals conceded per game and 3 clean sheets put them well ahead of Burnley, who give up 2.3 goals per match at the other end.

Burnley has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Bournemouth has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Bournemouth is a strong road performer with a 67% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 2.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Burnley is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Bournemouth has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.0 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Bournemouth is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Burnley shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 39.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Bournemouth. In practical terms, Bournemouth would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Bournemouth holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 69.1 against 29.4 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Bournemouth a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These two teams drew 0-0 in the Premier League (2026-03-14). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.