Canada vs Guatemala Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Canada has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 53.3 against considerably stronger competition than Guatemala (SoS: 41.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Canada leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Guatemala's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Canada is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 5 clean sheets, while Guatemala leaks 2.1 goals per match.

Guatemala has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.7 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Canada has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Guatemala is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 25.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Canada. In practical terms, Canada would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Canada in this contest. Their superior power rating of 54.5, compared to 29.5 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-01-18), Canada prevailed 1-0 against Guatemala. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Canada secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 1-0 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Guatemala will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Canada will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.