Celtic vs Hearts Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (36.6 vs 34.9), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Hearts's attack is on another level, averaging 2.2 goals per match with C. Johns leading the charge (4 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

Hearts holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.7 goals per game and recording 5 clean sheets, compared to Celtic's leaky backline that surrenders 1.5 goals per match.

Hearts is a strong road performer with a 71% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

🔥 Form Momentum: Hearts is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 22 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Hearts is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Celtic shows signs of decline with 4W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 22.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Hearts. In practical terms, Hearts would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Hearts in this contest. Their superior power rating of 60.8, compared to 38.3 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In their recent Scottish SWPL 1 match (2026-05-10), Hearts prevailed 1-2 against Celtic. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Hearts achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Celtic shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 1-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Celtic will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Hearts will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.