Iran vs Mali Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Context matters here: Iran's schedule strength (SoS: 54.1) has been notably more demanding than Mali's (SoS: 41.2), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Offensively, Iran outperforms Mali with 1.6 goals per match to 0.9, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Iran and Mali are evenly matched, allowing 0.6 and 0.7 goals per game respectively.

Iran has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 1.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Iran has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 17.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Iran. In practical terms, Iran would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Iran in this contest. Their superior power rating of 59.5, compared to 41.8 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-06-04), Iran prevailed 2-0 against Mali. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Iran secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Mali will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Iran will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.