Iran vs Uzbekistan Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 54.1 vs 56.3), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Iran holds the attacking edge with 1.6 goals per match versus Uzbekistan's 0.9, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Iran — 0.6 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets put them well ahead of Uzbekistan, who give up 1.8 goals per match at the other end.

Iran has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Uzbekistan has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.5 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Iran has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Uzbekistan is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 24.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Iran. In practical terms, Iran would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Iran holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 59.5 against 35.5 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-11-18), Uzbekistan prevailed 0-0 against Iran. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Uzbekistan secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Iran will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Uzbekistan will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.