Montenegro vs Sweden Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 52.8 vs 54.2), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

The attacking output of Montenegro and Sweden is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 0.8 and 1.0 goals per game respectively.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Montenegro — 1.0 goals conceded per game and 1 clean sheets put them well ahead of Sweden, who give up 2.5 goals per match at the other end.

Sweden has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.6 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Montenegro is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sweden is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 4 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Montenegro faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Sweden can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Montenegro. In practical terms, Montenegro would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Montenegro, with a 11.0-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams drew 2-2 in the UEFA Under 21 Championship Qualifiers (2026-03-27). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.