Sweden vs Tunisia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (57.1 vs 51.1), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Sweden's attack is on another level, averaging 1.8 goals per match with V. Gyökeres leading the charge (6 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Sweden giving up 2.3 and Tunisia giving up 2.3 per fixture.

Sweden has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Tunisia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.5 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Tunisia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Sweden faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 2.3 goals per match. If Tunisia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 15.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Sweden. In practical terms, Sweden would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Sweden in this contest. Their superior power rating of 43.1, compared to 27.2 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup (2026-06-15): Sweden defeated Tunisia 5-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Sweden's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Tunisia. Sweden secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 5-1 scoreline was emphatic — Sweden completely dominated Tunisia in that encounter, raising serious questions about Tunisia's ability to compete at this level. Tunisia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sweden will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.