Thun vs St.Gallen Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 53.1 vs 55.6), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Thun averaging 1.7 and St.Gallen averaging 1.8 goals per match.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for St.Gallen — 1.8 goals conceded per game and 0 clean sheets put them well ahead of Thun, who give up 3.4 goals per match at the other end.

Thun has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

St.Gallen has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 4.3 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Thun is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: St.Gallen has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. St.Gallen is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Thun shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, St.Gallen faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.8 goals per match. If Thun can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for St.Gallen. In practical terms, St.Gallen would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, St.Gallen holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 52.3 against 32.6 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Swiss Super League (2026-05-17). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.