Ukraine vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 62.6 vs 53.0), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Ukraine holds the attacking edge with 0.8 goals per match versus Lithuania's 0.5, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Ukraine giving up 1.7 and Lithuania giving up 1.5 per fixture.

Ukraine has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.2 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Ukraine is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 2 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Ukraine faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.7 goals per match. If Lithuania can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 68% win probability for Ukraine. In practical terms, Ukraine would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Ukraine, with a 7.3-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the UEFA Under 21 Championship Qualifiers (2026-03-27). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.