United States vs Turkey Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Turkey has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 68.0 against considerably stronger competition than United States (SoS: 57.4). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

United States leads the attacking statistics, averaging 2.2 goals per game compared to Turkey's 1.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Turkey is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while United States leaks 2.0 goals per match.

United States has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Turkey has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: United States has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

🔥 Form Momentum: Turkey is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 19 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

💡 Why This Matters: The 22.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Turkey. In practical terms, Turkey would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Turkey emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (75.8 vs 53.6) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup (2026-06-26): Turkey defeated United States 3-2. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against United States. Turkey secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 3-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. United States will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.