Estados Unidos vs Turquía Estadísticas Cara a Cara y Comparación de Forma

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Context matters here: Turkey's schedule strength (SoS: 68.0) has been notably more demanding than United States's (SoS: 57.4), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

United States holds the attacking edge with 2.2 goals per match versus Turkey's 1.9, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Turkey is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while United States leaks 2.0 goals per match.

United States has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Turkey has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.5 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: United States has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

🔥 Form Momentum: Turkey is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 19 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

💡 Why This Matters: The 22.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Turkey. In practical terms, Turkey would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Turkey emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (75.8 vs 53.6) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup (2026-06-26): Turkey defeated United States 3-2. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against United States. Turkey secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 3-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. United States will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.