Coreia do Sul vs Irã Estatísticas de Confrontos Diretos e Comparação de Forma

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Iran has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 58.2 against considerably stronger competition than South Korea (SoS: 45.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

South Korea possess a formidable attacking unit, with Park Soo-Jeong accounting for 3 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.0 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Iran's backline outperforms South Korea's, with 1.7 goals conceded per match versus 2.2.

South Korea has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Iran has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.3 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Iran is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, South Korea faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 2.2 goals per match. If Iran can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 67% win probability for South Korea. In practical terms, South Korea would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

South Korea has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 6.7-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the AFC Women's Asian Cup (2026-03-02), South Korea eliminated Iran with a 3-0 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and South Korea showed they can handle the pressure. South Korea secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — South Korea completely dominated Iran in that encounter, raising serious questions about Iran's ability to compete at this level. Iran will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. South Korea will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.